Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
70  Paige Gilchrist SR 19:49
98  Mikayla Malaspina JR 19:57
312  Miranda Myers JR 20:32
460  Kylie Goo SR 20:47
578  Pipi Eitel FR 20:57
665  Emily Roughan SR 21:05
804  Emma Keenan SR 21:15
833  Delaney Rasmussen FR 21:17
881  Jenna McCaffrey FR 21:20
1,199  Jessa Hanson FR 21:41
National Rank #38 of 348
Mountain Region Rank #7 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 28.3%
Most Likely Finish 7th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.1%
Top 20 at Nationals 4.4%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 11.9%
Top 10 in Regional 99.1%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Paige Gilchrist Mikayla Malaspina Miranda Myers Kylie Goo Pipi Eitel Emily Roughan Emma Keenan Delaney Rasmussen Jenna McCaffrey Jessa Hanson
Louisville Classic (Gold) 09/30 551 19:37 19:50 20:14 20:32 20:46 21:16 21:12 21:22 21:57
Pre-Nationals (Black) 10/14 21:17 21:26
Pre-Nationals (Red) 10/14 579 19:53 19:41 20:38 20:18 20:43 21:02 21:25
Big Sky Championship 10/28 705 19:50 20:13 20:25 21:34 20:56 20:50 21:14 21:31
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 699 19:41 19:57 20:26 21:19 21:51 21:10 21:03





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 28.3% 25.3 599 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.0 3.7 2.6 3.5 2.6 2.1
Region Championship 100% 7.1 213 0.6 3.1 8.3 18.2 33.0 22.3 10.6 3.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Paige Gilchrist 80.7% 69.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6
Mikayla Malaspina 62.6% 87.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Miranda Myers 28.5% 177.2
Kylie Goo 28.3% 206.5
Pipi Eitel 28.3% 221.3
Emily Roughan 28.3% 230.4
Emma Keenan 28.3% 239.6


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Paige Gilchrist 14.8 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 3.2 3.2 4.7 5.4 5.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 5.5 5.7 5.3 5.2 4.2 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.5 1.5
Mikayla Malaspina 19.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.8 3.6 2.7 4.0 3.8 4.1 5.1 5.3 5.1 6.1 5.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 4.0 4.1 3.9
Miranda Myers 45.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.3
Kylie Goo 60.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Pipi Eitel 72.2
Emily Roughan 80.4
Emma Keenan 91.3




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 0.6% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 3
4 3.1% 91.8% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 2.8 4
5 8.3% 84.8% 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 7.0 5
6 18.2% 60.3% 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.5 7.2 11.0 6
7 33.0% 18.2% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.5 27.0 6.0 7
8 22.3% 4.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 21.3 1.0 8
9 10.6% 10.6 9
10 3.2% 3.2 10
11 0.7% 0.7 11
12 0.2% 0.2 12
13 0.1% 0.1 13
14 14
15 0.1% 0.1 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 28.3% 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.5 3.2 4.6 5.7 6.8 71.7 0.0 28.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 58.3% 1.0 0.6
Eastern Kentucky 45.5% 1.0 0.5
Ohio State 37.3% 1.0 0.4
Louisville 33.4% 2.0 0.7
Virginia Tech 27.9% 2.0 0.6
SMU 20.8% 1.0 0.2
Samford 10.8% 1.0 0.1
Missouri 5.0% 1.0 0.1
Duke 4.9% 1.0 0.0
Arizona 2.8% 1.0 0.0
Wake Forest 2.5% 1.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 1.6% 1.0 0.0
West Virginia 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 0.5% 1.0 0.0
Auburn 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Arizona State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Dayton 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 3.2
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 10.0